European Power Market Pulse

Day-ahead European power prices are trading above the system average at 104.78 EUR/MWh, with a visible tightening in Central Western Europe (CH, BE, NL, DE) and select Norwegian coastal zones (NO5), while the Baltic and southern Swedish areas have collapsed to very low levels. The coexistence of triple‑digit prices in CWE/Alpine regions and sub‑20 EUR/MWh prices in the Baltics/SE3–SE4 points to strong regional divergence rather than a uniform bullish or bearish move, with localized congestion and renewable conditions dominating over any single continental trend.

On the upside, Switzerland (CH) stands out at 140.89 EUR/MWh, well above the system average and its peers, followed by Belgium, the Netherlands, Germany and NO5 all in the 115–125 EUR/MWh range. These are interconnected, demand‑dense markets that are highly exposed to both scarce hydro in the Alps/Nordics and limited import flexibility when neighboring zones are similarly tight. The particularly strong price collapse in the Baltics (LT, LV, EE) and southern/central Sweden (SE4, SE3)—down 40–87 EUR to mid‑teens—likely reflects very strong Nordic wind and relatively robust hydro inflows, combined with north–south grid bottlenecks in Sweden and constrained export capacity towards continental Europe, which frequently trap cheap surplus in SE3/SE4 and the Baltic area when wind ramps up. This structural pattern—Nordic/Baltic oversupply vs. congested CWE/Alpine demand centers—is consistent with recent episodes where high wind and hydro in the Nordics sharply depress local prices while CWE remains supported by thermal and import costs.

At the macro level, TTF gas is trading in the low‑ to mid‑40s EUR/MWh range and has softened over the past month, easing some marginal cost pressure for CCGTs but still keeping thermal SRMC well above the teens where Nordic/Baltic prices have printed today. Trading Economics and EnergyRiskIQ both point to gas around 42–45 EUR/MWh, with storage levels below the seasonal norm and weather (heat) driving incremental gas-fired generation. This environment supports elevated price floors in thermally dominated CWE markets such as BE, NL, DE, especially on warmer days with weaker local wind/solar output, while high Nordic wind and normal‑to‑good hydro allow Baltic/SE3–SE4 prices to decouple sharply to the downside. In short, current price spreads are consistent with: gas still expensive enough to anchor triple‑digit prices where renewables are less abundant and imports constrained, versus renewable‑driven surplus and export bottlenecks driving extreme discounts in the Nordic–Baltic corner of the market.